Instructional Guide To Poker Odds
Texas Hold ‘em is not a purely mathematical game. Especially in the popular No Limit format it is the art and science of playing your opponents more so than the cards. Still, this does not excuse us from knowing how to evaluate some basic probabilities nor does it mean that we can’t profit from doing so.
Drawing odds let you know how likely you are to complete your hand, and if you have your opponent on a hand how likely they are to make their draw. Pot odds tell us what kind of payoff we are getting for the bet we are about to make. Implied odds are a rough idea of how much value you can extract from a winning hand based on your opponent, their playing style and chip count.
Let’s consider a simplified example to introduce the methods for arriving at a decision. Our opponent has us covered, the pot has 3200 in chips and our stack is 15000 chips.
The board is Ad 6s 7s and you are holding 8s 9s. Your opponent raised before the flop. Holding suited connectors and having position on him you called. Your opponent reacts to the ace rolling off on the flop and makes a pot sized bet. You are fairly certain he has paired his ace.
You will need at least a straight to beat him and right now you have an open ended straight flush draw. While it may be eight to one against making that straight flush, any five or any ten will give you a straight and the winning hand. So in reality we have eight outs with thirty two cards left. That means any draw has a one in four chance of completing our hand with two cards to come. Our drawing odds are down to one in two, or two to one we won’t make the hand.
But wait a minute, a flush beats his pair of rockets as well. There are seven more cards in the deck that complete our flush. Now it’s better than even money that we will make the draw. We have two chances at one in two if the hand goes to showdown.
The pot odds are easier still to calculate. We now have 6400 in the pot and it will cost us 3200 to call. That’s two to one for our money if we win. With roughly a one in two chance to win on the next card and two to one payoff the situation looks palatable.
Implied odds are another story. Let’s assume that this game is online and we have taken extensive player notes on our opponent over the last week. His play is predictable and we are fairly certain of three things: He has top pair, he will not fold, and if we check or bet at him on fourth street he is going to bet the size of the pot or put us all in to extract value for his pair of bullets.
Implied odds are what we can reasonably estimate the payoff to be if we win this hand at showdown. In the scenario outlined above our opponent is probably going to put us all in on the turn if we call now. We are better than even to complete a flush, straight, or straight flush without the board pairing and giving him a full house.
WHAT DO POKER ODDS MEAN TO BETTING?
So we should probably make this call because odds are we will double up our stack right? Maybe.
The implied odds can’t be contemplated without factoring the type of game. Is this a ring game or tournament? If it’s a tournament are we in the money?
For a ring game very little thinking is needed. Unless you are playing with the rent, which you shouldn’t be. Call that hammerhead and get paid. If he beats the odds and guts you like a fish there are no worries. That means he will remember you as food and pay you off handsomely next time.
Early on in a tournament it would depend on your style of play. Are you going for a big stack to bully the table or being conservative trying to wait for strong hands? You just answered your question. If you are already in the money this is probably a call you should make unless there are some short stacks getting ready to go out soon. On the bubble you would lay this one down most of the time.
Only by considering drawing odds, pot odds and implied odds can we consider the profitability of a given play for a given situation. There is of course much more to the subject than we have covered here. Hopefully this brief introduction will induce you master calculating odds on the fly for maximum profits.
